Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 27 2025 - 00Z Tue Jul 29 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, northern Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes, and Northeast on Saturday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Sunday... On Saturday, a front extending from the Northern Plains to the Northern Rockies will move eastward to the Great Lakes and southward to the Central Plains and Northern Rockies by Monday evening. In addition, on Saturday, a second front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Great Lakes will slowly move eastward to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday. The northern front will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The eastern front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal threat of hail and tornadoes. Moreover, tropical moisture pooling along the Mid-Atlantic to Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys front will produce multiple areas of heavy rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, northern Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes, and Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, northern Mid-Atlantic/Lower Great Lakes, and Northeast through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the Southern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast on Saturday. On Sunday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes near the front. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, on Sunday, increasing moisture over the Upper Midwest will produce showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Furthermore, on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley, extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, due to tropical moisture pooling along the associated front. Multiple areas of heavy rain will develop with these thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Additionally, on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, and most of the Gulf Coast. Moreover, an upper-level high over the Southeast will aid in producing dangerous high temperatures, accompanied by high humidity from the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, as well as the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Extreme Heat Warnings, Heat Advisories, and Extreme Heat Watches are over these regions through Monday. An extended period of extreme heat and minimal nighttime relief can lead to cumulative heat stress on the body. As temperatures rise, plan to limit outdoor activities, stay hydrated, and ensure access to air conditioning and other cooling areas. Additionally, be sure to check on vulnerable family members, friends, and neighbors. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php