Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Jul 29 2025 - 00Z Thu Jul 31 2025 ...Severe weather likely into tonight across parts of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa... ...Dangerous heat wave continues across much of the central and eastern U.S. before relief begins to enter the northern tier on Wednesday... ...Excessive rainfall concerns forecast throughout the central Plains, Rockies, and Midwest into midweek... The weather pattern across the Lower 48 continues to be dominated by a large upper-level high centered over the southern U.S., driving oppressive heat and humidity across much of the eastern half of the Nation as thunderstorm activity pivots clockwise around its periphery. Some of these storms are expected to become severe across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today into tonight, with damaging winds the primary threat. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms throughout eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa, where the potential exists for wind gusts up to 75-90 mph. Additionally, a few tornadoes, isolated large hail, and torrential rainfall will be possible as storms rapidly strengthen this evening. Residents and visitors are advised to remain weather aware tonight and have multiple ways of receiving warnings. This large upper-ridge will be more so associated with the sultry heat and humidity experiences across much of the central and eastern U.S. for a few additional days. For tomorrow (Tuesday), highs into the upper 90s are expected to be widespread from the central Plains and Midwest to the Southeast and Northeast, including the the highly populated I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Boston. In fact, numerous daily record high temperatures are possible tomorrow across the Northeast and central Florida Peninsula. When combined with the oppressive late-July humidity levels, maximum heat index values are forecast to climb well above 100 degrees and even above 110 degrees across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southeast. One of the more dangerous aspects of this heat wave is the lack of relief overnight. Due to the elevated humidity levels, low temperatures will struggle to drop below the mid-70s, with lows around 80 degrees possible in urban areas. This can increase the strain on infrastructure and the potential for heat-related illness for those without access to cool shelters. Fortunately, an end to this late-July heat wave is in sight as a strong cold front enters the Midwest and Northeast by Wednesday and Thursday. Be sure to continue following proper heat safety and check on vulnerable friends, family members, and neighbors. Like much of this July so far, flash flooding will remain a concern across parts of the country to end the month. Following the potential for flash flooding tonight from the Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and Southeast, as well as the southern Rockies, Tuesday and Wednesday will feature more chances for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to rapid runoff and flash flooding. The frontal boundary located across the northern tier is forecast to slowly sink southward and become the focus for heavy rain throughout the central Plains and Midwest. Currently, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect on Tuesday from northeast Wyoming and far southeast Montana to western Iowa. By Wednesday, this risk for excessive rainfall shifts into the Midwest and centers over Iowa, northern Missouri, and Illinois. Meanwhile, a separate area with the potential for scattered instances of flash flooding is located across New Mexico and Colorado where monsoonal moisture will provide the potential for thunderstorms to contain intense rainfall rates, especially as the associated frontal boundary sinks southward and provides an additional focus for thunderstorms to develop. Here, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect across parts of New Mexico on Tuesday and into eastern Colorado on Wednesday. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php