Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 336 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 31 2025 - 00Z Sat Aug 02 2025 ... Conditions are conducive for potential significant flash flooding on Thursday and early Friday across the urban corridor from around Washington D.C. to New York City... ...Relief from the heat wave will begin around the end of the work week across most of the east and central U.S. as a seasonably strong cold front moves through... ...A stalling front across the Southeast will provide bouts of heavy rainfall and stormy weather this weekend, including the potential for some flash flooding... A cold front dropping southward into the Northeast (the Washington DC metro northwards to southern New England will be the main area of concern) will interact with a very moist and unstable atmosphere to set the stage for a potentially significant flash flooding event. The synoptic forcing will include a seasonably strong front, a forming surface low pressure, and high precipitable water and instability ahead of the front. The exact location of the heaviest rainfall is still uncertain, but it is reasonable to assert that some locations could locally exceed 5 inches of rainfall, including sensitive urban areas. Given the ceiling for a high end rainfall event and the sensitivity of populated urban centers, WPC has issued a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for areas discussed above. Turn around, don't drown. The ridge of high pressure bringing intense heat across the central and eastern U.S. will begin to break down as a strong cold front, at least during the dog days of summer, moves southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday and then stalls across the Southeast by Friday. From the Plains to the East Coast, temperatures may be as much as 10-20 degrees below average for the end of the week. Much of the Midwest and Central Plains will see high temperatures in the middle 70s and low temperatures in the middle 50s to low 60s Thursday and Friday. The cold front will clear the east coast by Friday and temperatures will be pleasant in the 70s with morning temperatures in the low 60s across the urban corridor and 50s for interior Northeast and New England possible. However, the front will stall across the south and states like Texas and Florida will not see much relief from the heat. Texas will see high temperatures in the upper 90s persist for the weekend, while Florida continues to have temperatures remain above average with middle 90s possible in the afternoon and heat indices over 100 with summer humidity over the region. Heavy rainfall and stormy weather will move southwards with the cold front. Friday and Saturday will see the potential for flash flooding across the Southeast Friday and Saturday as the frontal boundary begins to slow down over the region. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is forecast for southern North Carolina and South Carolina on Friday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall sags southwards towards the low country of South Carolina and Georgia, as well as north Florida on Saturday. Scattered flash flooding will be a hazard with storms that form along the frontal boundary. Elsewhere across the country, thunderstorms are likely for most of the West on Thursday and Friday as a stationary boundary will be present across the Mountain West and a mid-level disturbance will be located over the Pacific Coast. These ingredients will boost thunderstorm potential from the High Plains to the Northern Rockies to the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. The Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal Risk for strong storms on Thursday across the High Plains as sufficient deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will allow for some storms to produce strong winds and some instances of large hail according to SPC. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php