Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Aug 01 2025 - 00Z Sun Aug 03 2025 ...There is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into Thursday evening... ...Heatwave winds down across much of the Southeast...Extreme Heat continues for southern Arizona... ...Fire weather concerns for portions of the Great Basin into Saturday... A cold front with sufficient instability and anomalous moisture has begun producing heavy to excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Washington D.C.-Philadelphia-New York City urban corridor Thursday afternoon, which are expected to continue into Thursday evening; a moderate risk of excessive rainfall exists for this area. Training storms could lead to numerous instances of flash flooding, especially over urbanized areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms as well. Damaging wind gusts are possible for these areas into this evening. Another slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists for the High Plains of Wyoming and Colorado where damaging wind and hail producing storms will be the main threats this evening. The threat for flash flooding shifts southward into the Carolinas on Friday where a slight risk of excessive rainfall exists. The Gulf Coast should remain wet through this weekend in the vicinity of this stalling front. To the south of the front, Florida remains hot. The passage of the cold front will provide much milder temperatures for parts of the Central and Eastern U.S. through this weekend. Highs in the 70s and 80s are 15-20 degrees below average for early August, more representative of September. A dry continental airmass settles in over the Midwest and points east supported by a near record strong area of surface high pressure for August on Friday and Saturday centered over Wisconsin and Michigan. Smoke from southern Canada within the post-frontal air mass and smoke from fires across portions of Arizona and Utah overspreads the Central Rockies, High Plains, and Central and Northern Plains Friday and Saturday. In the West, Red Flag warnings are in effect for portions of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado into Thursday evening, with fire weather concerns lingering across portions of the Great Basin Friday and Saturday due to thunderstorms with limited rainfall in some areas and dry and breezy conditions elsewhere. The Desert Southwest remains hot under increased ridging aloft -- extreme heat warnings are in effect for Friday and Saturday across southern Arizona. Roth Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php