Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 PM EDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Aug 02 2025 - 00Z Mon Aug 04 2025 ...Risk of scattered flash flooding continues from the Southeast to parts of the Great Plains and Rockies over the next few days... ...Severe weather possible across portions of the High Plains through Saturday... ...Dangerous summer heat continues across Florida to start the weekend before above average temperatures shift to the Southwest and southern High Plains... The weather pattern for the first weekend of August will be highlighted by large high pressure and tranquil conditions across the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast, while a stalled frontal boundary focuses scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Southeast to the Great Plains and Rockies. Thunderstorms across the Southeast may be slow-moving and contain intense rainfall rates, leading to the potential for scattered instances of flash flooding. Given the frontal boundary will remain stalled across the region through Sunday while meandering towards the Gulf Coast, the threat for locally heavy rainfall will also remain. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall is in effect through tonight across the Carolinas and southwest Virginia, with the risk area shifting southward into southern Georgia and Alabama on Saturday. Additionally, a few damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out as thunderstorms peak in intensity each afternoon. This same frontal boundary will extend eastward to the southern Plains and bank up against the Rockies/High Plains this weekend, focusing additional chances for scattered thunderstorms and intense rainfall. By this weekend, the greatest potential for scattered flash flooding exists across the Texas Panhandle, central Oklahoma, and central Kansas. Some thunderstorms may also strengthen and turn severe across the central High Plains both this evening and Saturday, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Weather. Storms developing between the Texas Panhandle and western South Dakota may contain large hail and damaging wind gusts. After an oppressive heat wave gripped the central and eastern U.S. this past week, much cooler and even below average temperatures are forecast this weekend from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Highs are expected to reach the upper 70s and low 80s for the most part, as lows dip into the 50s and 60s. This cooler airmass does come with a catch across the Midwest and Great Lakes as increased levels of wildfire smoke cover much of the region. Thus, Air Quality Alerts span from Nebraska to Michigan. Potentially dangerous summer heat and humidity does linger; however, across the Southeast for a couple more days as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags southward this weekend. Heat Advisories remain in effect through this evening from northern Louisiana to South Carolina and the Florida Peninsula, with elevated levels of heat confined to the Sunshine State on Saturday. Meanwhile, above average temperatures will be on the rise across the Southwest and extending towards West Texas by Sunday. High temperature are expected to reach well into the triple digits and are highlighted by Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Be sure to follow proper heat safety across this region and check on vulnerable family, friends, and neighbors. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php