Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 AM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Aug 05 2025 - 12Z Thu Aug 07 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast on Tuesday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains on Tuesday... ...Air Quality Alerts over the Upper Midwest and parts of the Northeast... ...There are Extreme Heat Watches, Extreme Heat Warnings, and Heat Advisories over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest... A front lingering from the Southeast westward along the Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains will remain quasi-stationary through Thursday. The front and tropical moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy rain, over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will primarily create localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Additionally, on Tuesday, another weak front over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains will slowly move northeastward into South-Central Canada before dissipating on Thursday. The system, combined with a steady source of moisture, will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and occasional tornadoes. Furthermore, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Northeast, on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a front will begin to move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, moving eastward to the Northern High Plains, roughly southwestward to Northern California by Thursday. The storm will produce showers and rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind the front, weak onshore flow will aid in creating showers and rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region Wednesday into Thursday. Moreover, on Wednesday, tropical moisture over the Southeast, along with a lingering boundary, will produce showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition, the front moving across the Northern Plains on Wednesday will produce showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain is expected to be associated with the thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast and parts of the Northeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Southwest, Southern Rockies, and Central/Southern Plains. Meanwhile, smoke from wildfires in Canada has prompted Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Furthermore, an intensifying upper-level high over the Southwest will produce upward-trending temperatures across the Desert Southwest. High temperatures will reach the mid-110s by Tuesday. The most significant heat is forecast to focus over central and southern Arizona with widespread Major to Extreme Heat Risk. A Widespread Major to locally Extreme Heat Risk will also extend into Southern California. There are Extreme Heat Watches and Extreme Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest. Furthermore, Heat Advisories are in effect for parts of Southern California, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Texas. Stay informed and take steps to protect yourself from heat-related illnesses. For information on staying cool and safe, visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat. As temperatures rise, limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to air-conditioning and other cooling areas. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php