Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 AM EDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Aug 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Aug 09 2025 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains on Thursday and the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday... ...There are Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest... A front extending from the Northern Plains southwestward to the Great Basin on Thursday will advance eastward to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains and then westward to the Great Basin by Saturday. The boundary will ignite showers and severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two inches or greater over the area. In addition, upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Rainfall over these areas will be moderate to heavy. Moreover, a lingering front from the Southeast along the Gulf Coast will wiggle southward and then northward to the boundary s original position by Saturday. The front and tropical moisture will trigger showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by moderate to heavy rain, over parts of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast through Saturday. Further, diurnal heating will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, the Mid-Atlantic, the Central/Southern High Plains, and the Southern Rockies/Southwest. Meanwhile, as the front moves across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, on Friday, the boundary will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley from Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be an added threat of hail two inches or greater over eastern North Dakota and South Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. The showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Northern High Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western edge of Lake Superior. Diurnal heating will also produce showers and thunderstorms over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, Gulf Coast States, Central/Southern High Plains, Central/Southern Rockies, Southwest, and parts of the Northeast on Friday. Furthermore, an upper-level high over the Southwest will produce high temperatures reaching the mid-110s on Thursday through Friday. The most significant heat is forecast to focus over central and southern Arizona with widespread Major to Extreme Heat Risk. A Widespread Major to locally Extreme Heat Risk will also extend into Southern California. There are Extreme Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest. Furthermore, Heat Advisories are in effect for parts of southeastern Colorado, central Kansas, central Nebraska, parts of New Mexico, the Texas panhandle, north-central Texas, most of Oklahoma, and a small part of northwestern Arkansas. Stay informed and take steps to protect yourself from heat-related illnesses. For information on staying cool and safe, visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat. As temperatures rise, limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to air-conditioning and other cooling areas. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php