Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Aug 8 2025 - 00Z Sun Aug 10 2025 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains on Thursday and Friday... ...Heat builds across much of the Plains on Friday and into Saturday... A robust upper level shortwave situated over the Northern Rockies Thursday afternoon will evolve into a closed low near the U.S./Canada border by late Friday. Deep layer ascent ahead of this trough will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Dakotas and result in a strong surface low for this time of year, on the order of 1000 mb by Friday evening. This storm system will have enough kinematics and instability to produce severe weather from eastern Montana to northern Minnesota through the end of the work week, and the Storm Prediction Center currently has an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across portions of that region through Thursday night, and a Slight Risk (level 2/5) on Friday a little farther to the east across the Upper Midwest. Periods of heavy rainfall are also likely near the warm front where some convective training will result in higher rainfall rates, and the Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for the Upper Midwest. The amplifying upper trough across Rockies will also result in a cold front slowly dropping southward across the Intermountain West on Friday, and this will increase surface winds. These winds in combination with a dry airmass will increase wildfire concerns to critical levels per the Storm Prediction Center from southeastern Nevada to western Colorado. For the Southeast U.S., a lingering frontal boundary situated off the coast will tend to keep enough low level moisture in place to fuel the development of scattered showers and storms, with the greatest concentration from northern Florida to the coastal plain of North Carolina. The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring the offshore waters here for potential tropical development over the next few days, but anything that develops should move out to sea. The ongoing intense heat wave across the Desert Southwest will finally start to abate going into this weekend as the upper ridge breaks down some. Highs well into the 110s across the lower elevations of the Arizona and eastern California deserts will drop about 5-10 degrees by Saturday, but still hot. However, the heat and humidity builds across the Plains into the Midwest going into Friday, and then a little more to the east on Saturday as warm air advection increases in the warm sector of the developing surface low. HeatRisk is expected to reach the major category from northern Texas to the western Great Lakes, and heat advisories are already in effect from the southern Plains up to portions of South Dakota, with highs of 95-105 degrees likely for many of these areas on Friday. There will also be a gradual return to warmer temperatures for the Eastern U.S. going into the weekend and beyond. Hamrick Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php