Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Aug 10 2025 ...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact the Northern Plains today, reaching into the upper Midwest by the weekend... ...The threat of execessive rainfall is expected to reach northern Minnesota later this morning and tonight, shifting farther south into Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois by the weekend... ...Triple-digit heat across the Central and Southern Plains today... A robust upper-level trough passing through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains this morning will trigger a rather dynamic low pressure system for August across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest through the next couple of days. This system will pack enough dynamics and instability to produce severe weather from across North Dakota early this morning to northern northern Minnesota by this evening. The Storm Prediction Center currently has an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across North Dakota early this morning, followed by maintaining a Slight Risk across portions of the upper Midwest beginning this evening into the weekend. Periods of heavy rainfall are also likely to reach northern Minnesota later this morning and tonight, shifting farther south into Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois by the weekend in response to a developing low pressure wave that reinforces the rainfall associated with the departing main low pressure system into southern Canada by the weekend. The amplifying upper trough across Rockies will also result in a cold front slowly dropping southward across the Intermountain West today, and this will increase surface winds. These winds in combination with a dry airmass will increase wildfire concerns to critical levels per the Storm Prediction Center from the Great Basin to the Four Corners. For the Southeast U.S., a lingering frontal boundary near or just off the coast will tend to keep enough low level moisture in place to fuel the development of scattered showers and storms, with the greatest concentration from northern Florida to the coastal plain of North Carolina. The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring the offshore waters here for potential tropical development over the next few days, but anything that develops should move out to sea. The ongoing intense heat wave across the Desert Southwest will finally start to abate going into this weekend as the upper ridge breaks down some. Highs well into the 110s across the lower elevations of the Arizona and eastern California deserts will drop about 5-10 degrees by Saturday, but still hot. However, the heat and humidity build across the central/southern Plains and into the Midwest for today where high temperatures well into the 100s are in the forecast. The heat will move a little more to the east on Saturday ahead of the low pressure system but much cooler air from Canada will advance southward into the central Plains by Sunday. HeatRisk is expected to reach the major category from northern Texas to the western Great Lakes, and heat advisories are in effect for much of the central to southern Plains into portions of the Midwest for today. There will also be a gradual return to warmer temperatures for the eastern U.S. going into the weekend and beyond after the present cool spell. Kong/Hamrick Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php