Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Aug 10 2025 - 00Z Tue Aug 12 2025 ...Repeated rounds of heavy rain likely to produce numerous instances of flash flooding across portions of the Midwest through Monday... ...Severe thunderstorms pose a threat of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes from portions of eastern Colorado to the central Plains and the western Great Lakes through tonight... ...Risk of elevated fire weather conditions persists across parts of the Four Corners through Sunday... A slow-moving frontal system parked across parts of the central Plains and Midwest will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms and several rounds of heavy rain over the next couple of days. Plenty of heat and humidity along a wavy front will provide the fuel for the development and maintenance of thunderstorm complexes that can quickly turn severe, particularly from parts of eastern Colorado to the central Plains and the western Great Lakes into tonight. The most severe storms will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds, with an isolated tornado or two not ruled out either. As clusters of storms merge and track over the same locations, the threat will shift to prolonged rounds of heavy rain which can lead to numerous instances of flash flooding over the next couple of days. The slow and chaotic movement of these storm clusters combined with intense rainfall rates over saturated grounds will mean that any flash flooding will have the heightened potential to produce significant impacts. The Weather Prediction Center continues to maintain a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall for portions of the central Plains and Upper Midwest through Sunday. Remember, have a plan before venturing out and be aware of alternate routes in case you encounter flooded roadways. As always, Turn Around, Don't Drown! A strong upper-level disturbance combined with hot and very dry weather will continue to promote the risk of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region through Sunday. Strong daytime heating and solar insolation will result in the efficient mixing of gusty winds aloft to the surface each afternoon and evening. The gusty winds in conjunction with dry fuels and relative humidities in the single digits and teens will lead to near critical fire weather conditions and the potential for new fire starts or existing fires to spread rapidly. Meanwhile, heat and humidity will remain in place ahead of the aforementioned stalling front, in contrast with much cooler air behind the front from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains to the central High Plains through early next week. Heat continues across the Desert Southwest, but it won't be quite as hot as it has been the last several days. Across the Great Lakes, New England, and the Northeast, a gradual warming trend will bring temperatures well into the 80s and lower 90s heading into early next week. The Southeast should remain somewhat cooler than average due to an unsettled pattern featuring a good deal of clouds and daily scattered showers and thunderstorms. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php