Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 320 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Aug 12 2025 - 00Z Thu Aug 14 2025 ...Additional rounds of heavy rain and localized flash flooding will continue over the next couple of days across the southern Plains and also portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians... ...Heat builds across the Intermountain West and for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through midweek... A nearly stationary front extending from the Midwest to the southern Plains will continue to be the focus for additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms at least through tonight. The Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2/4) across portions of the Texas Panhandle and much of southwest to central Oklahoma where locally a few inches of rain will possible along with concerns for flash flooding for tonight. Over the next couple of days, this frontal zone will shift off to the east and weaken, but there will be the arrival of a deeper trough of lower pressure across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes region which will drive a couple of cold fronts southeastward across these areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be focused along and ahead of these fronts, but drier air will follow across the region and drive temperatures down to near or slightly below normal. However, temperatures are expected to warm back up rather significantly later in the week. Meanwhile, a widespread area of unsettled weather will be expected across much of the Gulf Coast region, the interior of the Southeast and into the southern Appalachians through midweek. An elongated trough of low pressure coupled with deep tropical moisture pooled across the region will favor scattered to numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. High rainfall rates and rather slow storm motions will favor locally very heavy rainfall totals and concerns for some flash flooding. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (level 2/4) across portions of the southern Appalachians for Tuesday through early Wednesday. While cooler and drier air will at least temporarily impact portions of the northern Plains to the Great Lakes region behind the aforementioned cold fronts, it will be quite hot and humid out ahead of these boundaries. Temperatures will be well above normal from the Ohio Valley through most of the Mid-Atlantic and especially the interior of the Northeast, with temperatures locally reaching well into the 90s. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures cooler across the South, but it will be very muggy here given the tropical moisture environment that will be in place. Across the West, a ridge of high pressure aloft will keep temperatures here quite hot with much above normal temperatures expected through midweek across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest. Some of the interior deserts of the Southwest may see high temperatures reach well into the 110 to 120 degree range. Widespread Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect as a result. A gradual break in the heat is expected at least across the Northwest by late this week as a cold front arrives and helps to break down the ridge of high pressure. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php