Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Aug 13 2025 - 00Z Fri Aug 15 2025 ...Heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast through tonight will overspread the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday and Thursday... ...Some concerns for flash flooding will exist across the central Gulf Coast and the southern Appalachians... ...Severe thunderstorms may impact portions of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley late Wednesday into Thursday... ...Heat across the Intermountain West will shift off to the east and back into the Plains and Midwest for later this week as the Northwest cools down... A series of cold fronts crossing through the Midwest and Great Lakes region will gradually bring somewhat cooler and drier air to these areas going through the middle part of the week, but will also bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast for Wednesday and Thursday. There is already a pool of tropical moisture and instability pooled well ahead of these fronts involving the Gulf Coast region, the Southeast and also the southern Appalachians which is currently producing scattered to numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across these areas, along with a threat for some flash flooding. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast and the southern Appalachians where this moisture combined with a trough of low pressure will help to focus locally a few inches of rain tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a new storm system will cross through western and southern Canada Wednesday through Thursday which will allow for a warm front to return northward across the northern Plains. This will promote a renewed threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of South Dakota and northern Nebraska where there will be a concern for severe weather by Wednesday night. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms with a concern for damaging wind gusts and isolated areas of large hail. As this warm front pushes eastward and an upstream cold front arrives from southwest Canada, the threat for severe weather will then push across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Cooler temperatures behind this cold front will allow for temperatures to gradually trend below normal across the northern High Plains and especially the Northwest U.S. for the latter part of the week. This will bring a break from the heatwave that portions of the Intermountain West have been experiencing as well. However, the same hot weather that has been over the West will shift east out into the central Plains and the Midwest late this week. This will allow for a return to high temperatures reaching well into the 90s to locally over 100 degrees. Other portions of the country that have been hot lately include the Northeast U.S., and this area should see temperatures gradually cool down as a threat of showers and thunderstorms arrives just ahead of a cold front. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php