Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Aug 14 2025 - 12Z Sat Aug 16 2025 ...Locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible near the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast today followed by more scattered thunderstorms on Friday and into the weekend... ...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected to impact portions of the Northern Plains to the upper Midwest through the next couple of days... ...A couple of days of heat across the central High Plains as major to locally extreme HeatRisk is forecast for northern to central Florida... Under a stagnant weather pattern, warm and moist air already in place across much of the eastern U.S. into the Deep South will continue to promote the developments of scattered showers and thunderstorms within this area ahead of a weak upper trough. The thunderstorms are expected to be more numerous from late afternoon into the evening hours through the next couple of days. Locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible today into tonight near the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast where a trough of low pressure lingers while a cold front nudges toward the area from interior Mid-Atlantic. A Slight Risk (Level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is highlighted for the area near the coast. By Friday, the southward progression of the front should usher in a more stable airmass, in turn decreasing thunderstorm coverage across the Tennessee Valley. Nevertheless, isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible ahead of the front extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Northeast. Meanwhile, a deepening low pressure system over the Canadian prairies will drive a warm front across the Northern Plains. Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be triggered and then impact portions of the Northern Plains to the upper Midwest through the next couple of days. The primary hazards associated with these thunderstorms are damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. As the warm front advances eastward and then collides with a cold front pushing in from the Canadian prairies, the severe weather threat will then head further east across the upper Midwest on Friday, reaching into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will allow for temperatures to gradually trend below normal across the northern High Plains and especially the Northwest U.S. for the latter part of the week. This will bring a break from the hot weather that portions of the Intermountain West have been experiencing. Over the next couple of days, the core of the heat will shift focus into the central Plains, where high temperatures reaching the century mark can be expected. Across northern Florida, a slight increase of heat and humidity is enough to raise HeatRisk into Major and locally Extreme levels through the next couple of days as the Bermuda High builds westward into the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will linger across the southern Rockies where scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread gradually northward into the Four Corners by the weekend. Kong/Asherman Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php