Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 309 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 15 2025 - 12Z Sun Aug 17 2025 ...NHC monitoring a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf... ...Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the weekend... ...Hazardous heat from the Central Plains to Midwest this weekend... The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf, which may bring moderate to locally heavy rain to portions of South Texas today into Saturday. This disturbance should move inland over northeastern Mexico or South Texas this afternoon or evening. For more information, see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC. To the north, a slow-moving front will continue to sink south into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. An upper level shortwave is forecast to move over the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening, which will provide support for scattered severe thunderstorms. Severe storms may produce damaging winds, hail, a brief tornado, and/or heavy rain and flash flooding. Storms will likely continue through the overnight hours tonight, and additional rounds of storms, some severe, are forecast to impact the Upper Midwest again on Saturday and Sunday and may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. Showers and storms are expected to spread into the Northeast on Sunday the front approaches the region. Elsewhere, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist across the South and Southeast as a weak frontal boundary stalls across the region, and precipitation chances will increase across the Pacific Northwest as a cold front moves onshore this weekend, progressing into the northern Rockies, Great Basin, and northern California by Sunday. Monsoon moisture in the Southwest will also support persistent precipitation chances across the Four Corners region through the weekend. In the South and West, locally heavy rain may have the potential to cause isolated instances of flash flooding. Temperature-wise, the West Coast should remain cooler than average while much of the Central and Eastern U.S. experience above average temperatures. The highest temperature anomalies are forecast to spread from the Central Plains to the Midwest this weekend, with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s and low 100s and heat index values in the low-to-mid 100s. This level of heat is expected to create Major to locally Extreme HeatRisk in these regions, which could be hazardous to anyone without adequate cooling and/or hydration. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php