Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Aug 16 2025 - 00Z Mon Aug 18 2025 ...A tropical disturbance over south Texas will bring chances for heavy rainfall over the region... ...Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the weekend... ...Hazardous heat from the Central Plains to Mississippi Valley this weekend... A tropical disturbance near south Texas will bring occasional moderate to locally heavy rain today into Saturday. This disturbance should move northwards into central and southeast Texas tonight bringing chances for isolated to scattered flash flooding. Parts of southern Texas, including Brownsville, is under a Slight Risk (2/4) for Excessive Rainfall. Over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, a slow-moving front will continue to trek southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. With the warm, moist air and instability aloft, expect scattered severe thunderstorms through the weekend. Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Upper Midwest with a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. These storms have the potential to bring hail, strong gusty winds, and heavy rain/flash flooding. As the cold front slowly moves towards the Northeast by Sunday, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over this area, bringing chances for locally heavy rain and flash flooding. With the combination of the cold front moving into the Pacific Northwest, moisture from an atmospheric river over Washington, and monsoon moisture over the Southwest, chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend across the Four Corners and Pacific Northwest. Fortunately, rainfall will be beneficial due to recent drought conditions across the region. Therefore, risk for flash flooding will be marginal. Above normal temperatures will continue to push over the Central Plains and Mississippi Valley over the next few days. With temperatures expected to reach the upper 90s to low 100s this weekend, parts of the Midwest and Central Plains are under a Major to Extreme HeatRisk, which will be hazardous for those without effective cooling/hydration and those who are sensitive to heat. Otherwise, a cold front will continue to move over western U.S., allowing for cooler than average temperatures to continue through the weekend over California, the Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest. Oudit Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php