Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 323 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Aug 19 2025 - 00Z Thu Aug 21 2025 ...Rounds of thunderstorms for portions of the Midwest, central/northern Plains, and Southern Mid-Atlantic with chances of flash flooding... ...Life-threatening surf and rip currents expected along the beaches of the East Coast this week as Hurricane Erin passes by to the east... ...Hazardous heat builds across parts of the Plains, Midwest, and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley through early this week and the Southwest by mid-week... With the slow moving frontal system over the Midwest and a upper-level shortwave over the Midwest, expect rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening into Tuesday for Northern/Central Plains, Southeast Mid-Atlantic, and the Midwest. With sufficient moisture in the mid-levels, instability, and rain rates near 2" per hour, parts of the Midwest and Plains will be under both a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) and a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds, whereas storms developing off the Southeast Mid-Atlantic will only be under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. With an increase in soil saturation from recent rainfall and possible short-fused downpours, there is a chance for some isolated/local flash flooding for the Southern Mid-Atlantic, Appalachians, and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes for this evening into the night. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected for many of the beaches along the East Coast this week as Hurricane Erin begins to track northward and pass by to the east. In addition, interests along the Outer Banks of the Carolinas should keep monitoring Erin's forecast track as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rain bands mid-week, as well as a threat for significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. An upper level ridge over the Northern Plains will promote hot and humid conditions over the Plains, Midwest, and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley through the early part of this week. With temperatures expected to reach upper 90s to low 100s, along with very little overnight relief as minimums are expected to stay within the 70s, much of the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley are under a Major to Extreme HeatRisk. In addition, a high pressure system will build over the Four Corners bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditions by mid-week, which will highlight parts of the Southwest with a Major HeatRisk. Otherwise, the cold front that sits over the East Coast will bring some cooler temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic states. The cooling trend will continue through most of the week with temperatures mostly in the 70s to low 80s. Cooler temperatures also continue for the West Coast with temperatures remaining slightly below average with temperatures mostly in the 60s and 70s. Oudit/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php