Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 09 2025 - 00Z Thu Sep 11 2025 ...There are Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northwest from wildfires, and portions of the interior Northeast have Frost Advisories in effect for Tuesday morning... The West will see an increase in chances for isolated heavy rainfall and an increase in thunderstorm chances as an upper-low/surface front nears the region on Tuesday. The Southern and Central Plains will see afternoon thunderstorm chances, including isolated severe and flash flooding chances... Fires out West and in Canada have continued to bring health concerns for low air quality today across mostly Washington state and portions of Idaho. Model smoke plumes continue to show chances of low air quality over the next few days. Onto the other side of the country, Frost Advisories are active across counties in the upstate Northeast. High pressure over the area will allow for effective radiational cooling and temperatures are likely to drop into the 30s in typical cool spots. Agricultural interests should monitor for hazards to vegetation and crops. Meanwhile, upper-level energy moves over the Northwest from Monday into Wednesday as a weak front moves onshore over California overnight Monday, advancing to the Great Basin by Wednesday. The upper low will serve as a source of synoptic lift and increase moisture at the surface to raise chances for thunderstorms in the interior West. Additionally, there will be the potential for isolated flash flooding from thunderstorms that do form for areas of high terrain from extreme northern California to the Cascades of Washington and Oregon on Tuesday and then Wednesday. The probabilities for thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will then increase eastward with the frontal progression across the Four Corners region starting by the middle of the week. The southern and central Plains will remain unsettled with isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon through Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather for western Oklahoma and Kansas, as well as the Texas Panhandle for Tuesday. The severe weather threat should be scattered, but SPC is calling for any storms that do develop to contain the possibility for large hail and strong winds. This is in large part due to supportive bulk shear and steep lapse rates near the surface from diurnal heating. For flash flooding, WPC has highlighted eastern Kansas as an area to be aware of. Weak steering flow, southerly winds advecting moisture above the surface, and the presence of a lee trough may support over achieving thunderstorm clusters that could bring some instances of flash flooding. The forecast for Florida calls for the persistence method as once again a lingering stationary front, in conjunction with ample moisture and daytime heating, will enhance rain and thunderstorm chances. High rainfall rates will allow for localized water ponding and mostly nuisance flooding. Also, the front may bring enhanced easterly winds and some coastal flooding concerns along the east coast of Florida. This pattern will hold serve into the middle of the week before maybe some hope on the horizon as some models indicate drier air moving in as the front sags southward. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php