Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Sep 12 2025 - 00Z Sun Sep 14 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern Florida on through Friday, as well as the Central/Southern Rockies on Friday... ...Chances for severe thunderstorms over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains tonight... ...An upper-level ridge will bring above normal temperatures over Central and Eastern U.S. through the weekend... The stationary front stretching across southern Florida will continue to accumulate tropical moisture over the area. With sufficient moisture and instability, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. With the front expecting to linger and bring occasional heavy showers over the area, WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall over portions of southern Florida through Friday. With the recent rainfall and soil saturation, there is an increased chance for localized flash flooding within urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas. An upper-level trough over the western U.S. will continue to bring chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with below average temperatures through the weekend. Most of the showers and thunderstorms this evening will be focused over parts of the Northwest, including Northern Rockies and Northern Plains tonight. With the warm-air advection over Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for Severe Thunderstorms for parts of eastern Montana into western North Dakota. The moisture will gradually travel over into New Mexico and Colorado tonight into Friday. With ample amount of moisture associated with this trough, there will be chances for occasional heavy downpours, which can lead to localized flash flooding. WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall for areas within southern Colorado and New Mexico for Friday. Overall, the amount of rainfall from this trough will be beneficial for drought conditions, as most of the Western U.S. has been highlighted for Severe to Extreme Drought. By late week, the moisture will gradually trek eastward over Northern Texas and Kansas. With the upper-level ridging stretching across central and eastern U.S., temperatures are expected to reach 10-20 degrees above average over the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley for the next few days. Most of the max temperatures will stay within the 90s, allowing for most of the area to remain within a Minor to Moderate criteria for HeatRisk. Oudit Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php