Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Sep 12 2025 - 12Z Sun Sep 14 2025 ...Thunderstorms continue over the Intermountain West, High Plains, and South Florida; isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe weather possible... ...Relatively cool temperatures anticipated this weekend west of the Continental Divide; warm weather forecast downwind across the Central and Eastern U.S... As has been the story for the last few days, thunderstorm chances within the Lower 48 will generally focus atop portions of the Intermountain West, High Plains, and South Florida on the flank(s) of an upper-ridge sandwiched over the Central U.S. In the West, the heaviest coverage of showers and thunderstorms today is expected over Southwest Colorado and Northern New Mexico as an amplified upper-trough taps into a fetch of moist and unstable air overhead, leading to scattered flash flooding and isolated instances of severe hail and wind from any storms that develop in the region this afternoon. Eventually, the approach of the upper-trough and an emerging cold front should migrate the heavy rain and severe weather threat eastward into the High Plains tomorrow, with a similar coverage of impacts expected. Meanwhile, in the East, urban flash flooding concerns will persist across South Florida this weekend with storms expected along a stubborn stationary front bisecting the Florida Peninsula. With the advance of the aforementioned upper-trough and cold front, relatively cool temperatures are forecast across the Intermountain West this weekend with daytime highs 10-15 degrees below normal (generally in the 70's-80's). In stark contrast to the West, some of the Central U.S. will see warm, above-average temperatures eclipsing the mid-upper 90's this weekend. The latest experimental HeatRisk guidance suggests that this hot weather could possibly impact anyone without access to cooling or hydration, particularly on Saturday. By the end of this weekend, warm temperatures will persist across the Central U.S., although as of now heat impacts beyond Saturday will generally remain confined to those sensitive to heat. Asherman Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php