Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Sep 14 2025 - 00Z Tue Sep 16 2025 ...Rounds of thunderstorms continue over the Southern Rockies, High Plains, and Midwest; scattered flash flooding and severe weather possible... ...Unsettled weather in the Southeast with periods of rain, gusty winds, and choppy seas along the Southeast coast; Pacific Northwest to cool off in wake of a passing cold front... ...Mid-September heat wave unfolding in parts of the Mississippi Valley; warmer than normal weather from the south-central U.S. to the Northeast... Through the remainder of the weekend and to kick-off the upcoming work-week, the Great Plains will be the most active region with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The southern Great Plains and Southern Rockies are most at-risk for both severe storms and flash flooding. These risks are highlighted by both the Weather Prediction Center and Storm Prediction Center as both national centers have Slight Risks issued for portions of New Mexico and West Texas through the remainder of Saturday. The frontal system responsible for the severe/flash flood threat today heads into the central and northern Great Plains on Sunday. Strong-to-severe storms will develop Sunday and linger into Sunday night. WPC maintains a Slight Risk over the Dakotas and a Marginal Risk that extends from the North Dakota/Canada border on south to central Kansas. SPC has an even lengthier Marginal Risk that goes as far south as the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. This frontal system should gradually weaken heading into Monday, but there will still be lingering heavy showers and storms across the the Northern and Central Plains, as well as the Upper Midwest, with North Dakota most at-risk for locally heavy rainfall and potentially some severe weather. Elsewhere, an approaching Pacific cold front will deliver a shot of cooler than normal temperatures to the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and persist into Monday. In addition to the cooler temperatures, the front will also trigger scattered showers and some thunderstorms from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, then throughout the Northern Rockies late Sunday into Monday. Off the East Coast, a dawdling wave of low pressure will slowly inch its way west towards the Southeast coast to the point were some showers and storms reach the eastern Carolinas late Sunday and into Monday. This wave of low pressure is likely to cause some rough seas and gusty winds from the eastern Carolinas on north to the coastlines of the DelMarVa Peninsula. Lastly, a lingering frontal boundary over the Middle Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley are likely to initiate scattered showers and storms today and through Sunday. WPC does have a small Marginal Risk in place for much of Indiana through this afternoon and evening. Temperature-wise, while the Pacific Northwest cools off, much of the eastern two-thirds of the country will not fully shake summer's grasp just yet. The hottest temperatures compared to normal will be located in the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley where daytime highs will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Some portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley will remain mired in an ongoing mid-September heat wave with some locations approaching daily record highs. Overnight lows will be on the warmer side in these regions as well. Farther east, unseasonably warm temperatures will stretch from the Mid-South and Great Lakes on east to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal in the Southwest. The Southeast coast will also be seasonally cool given the increasing cloud cover and rain chances into the start of the week. Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php