Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 14 2025 - 12Z Tue Sep 16 2025 ...Rounds of thunderstorms across the Plains today, then mainly across the northern Plains on Monday; scattered flash flooding and severe weather possible into tonight... ...Coastal storm brewing near the Mid-Atlantic while Pacific Northwest cools off in wake of a passing cold front... ...Mid-September heat wave persisting up the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, with warmer than normal weather from the Great Lakes to the Northeast... An upper-level trough interacting with a wavy front will continue to be the impetus for rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms up and down the Great Plains today. By later today into tonight, a more consolidated low pressure center is forecast to emerge and move northward into the northern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to organize ahead of the low center near and along the front where heavy rain is possible along a corridor across the western portion of the Dakotas tonight. The low pressure center will take its time exiting the northern Plains where additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Monday before spreading eastward into the upper Midwest later on Monday. Farther south, only isolated thunderstorms are expected down into the southern Plains where the front is forecast to be more diffuse on Monday. As an upper-level ridge brings heat from the mid-section of the country to the Northeast through the next couple of days, a coastal storm is brewing off the coast of the southeastern U.S. A low pressure system currently developing near a stationary front is forecast to intensify and head toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina Monday night. This system, reminiscence of a cold-season nor'easter, will likely bring a round of soaking rain with windy conditions especially near the coast beginning on Monday. Tuesday morning could see the core of this coastal storm making landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina border where potential exists for a few inches of wind-swept rain pushing farther inland thereafter. Elsewhere, a Pacific cold front currently pushing onshore will deliver a shot of cooler than normal temperatures to the Pacific Northwest through Monday. In addition to the cooler temperatures, the front will trigger scattered showers and some thunderstorms from the Pacific Northwest today, then throughout the Northern Rockies later today into Monday. By Tuesday morning, showers and thunderstorms associated with this system is forecast to reach into the northern High Plains. Temperature-wise, while the Pacific Northwest cools off, much of the eastern two-thirds of the country will not fully shake summer's grasp just yet. The hottest temperatures compared to normal will be located in the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley where daytime highs will range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Some portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley will remain mired in an ongoing mid-September heat wave with some locations approaching daily record highs. Overnight lows will be on the warmer side in these regions as well. Farther east, unseasonably warm temperatures will stretch from the Mid-South and Great Lakes on east to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal in the Southwest. The Southeast coast will also be seasonally cool given the increasing cloud cover and rain chances into the start of the week. Kong/Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php