Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 22 2025 - 12Z Wed Sep 24 2025 ...Clusters of thunderstorms continue early this week from the Midwest southwest through the central/southern Plains with threats of flash flooding and severe weather... ...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the Southwest/California with isolated flash flooding possible... ...Above average temperatures in the central/eastern U.S. and West Coast will feel more like Summer while well below average temperatures in the Rockies will feel more like Fall as the seasons change... A series of upper-level waves and associated surface frontal/convective boundaries will continue to trigger increasingly more widespread clusters of thunderstorms from the Midwest and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys west through the central/southern Plains through at least mid-week. A continual flow of Gulf moisture northward will fuel heavy rainfall-producing storms, with repeated rounds of storms clustering along the frontal and convective outflow boundaries supporting long-duration rainfall and heavy totals. For Monday, the current greatest risk for heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is expected across portions of western/south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect. More isolated instances of flash flooding are possible from the Ohio Valley west through the Mid-South, Ozarks, and into portions of the central/southern Plains. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Middle Missouri Valley and portions of southwest Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle with Slight Risks of severe weather (level 2/5), mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Then, on Tuesday, the threat for flash flooding will shift southeastward into the Ozarks vicinity and Mid-South, with another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect. Additional more isolated instances of flash flooding are possible across a much broader area from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys west through the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys and into portions of the central/southern Plains. Another Slight Risk of severe weather also coincides for much of the same region across the Ozarks vicinity and into the ArkLaTex, with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all possible. The threat for flash flooding is expected to continue into Wednesday with a Slight Risk outlined across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An upper-low just off the West Coast will support another round of afternoon thunderstorms across much of the Southwest Monday. Locally heavy downpours may lead to some isolated flash flooding, especially from the Colorado River Valley eastward through Arizona and into west-central New Mexico. As the upper-low meanders, an associated Pacific frontal system is expected to approach the central/southern California coast Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms here as well. Significantly anomalous moisture will support the threat for heavy rainfall, with at least an isolated risk for flash flooding, especially for any burn scars. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms can be expected across the Florida Peninsula and up portions of the southeast Atlantic coast, as well as along the western Gulf Coast. A cold front will bring showers and storms to the Interior Northeast Monday and expand in coverage across the rest of the Northeast into Tuesday. Another cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the central Rockies the next couple of days. Some higher mountain elevations may see some snow mix in on Tuesday. As the seasons change Monday, well above average highs across much of the central/eastern U.S. as well as the West Coast will feel more like Summer the next couple of days. Highs in the upper-80s to mid-90s will be common from the Southeast west through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern Plains/Texas. Some upper 90s to near 100 will be possible across west Texas and along the Rio Grande. Further north, highs will be in the 70s and 80s from the Northeast west through the Midwest and into the northern/central Plains. Additionally, after a cooler weekend, a warm up will come to much of the West Coast and vicinity. Forecast highs range in the 60 and 70s along the coast, 70s and 80s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, the 90s for the central California Valleys, and 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest. Highs on Tuesday generally look to be several degrees warmer than Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front will bring a brief period of much cooler than average and more Fall-like temperatures to the Rockies and vicinity. Forecast highs Monday will be in the 60s for the northern Rockies Monday before a warm-up back into the 70s on Tuesday. The cooler temperatures will spread into the central Rockies and adjacent areas of the central Plains on Tuesday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php