Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 23 2025 - 00Z Thu Sep 25 2025 ...Clusters of thunderstorms continue early this week from the Midwest southwest through the central/southern Plains with threats of flash flooding and severe weather... ...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the Southwest/California with isolated flash flooding possible... ...Above average temperatures in the central/eastern U.S. and West Coast will feel more like Summer while well below average temperatures in the Rockies will feel more like Fall as the seasons change... Over the next couple of days, upper-level energy and surface low pressure will both consolidate in the High Plains and move slowly east. This will draw in ample Gulf moisture that should pool around frontal and convective outflow boundaries and lead to scattered to widespread thunderstorms for much of the central U.S. and reaching the East toward midweek. Through Monday night, the greatest risk for heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is expected across much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect. More isolated instances of flash flooding are possible from the Ohio Valley west through the Mid-South, Ozarks, and into portions of the central/southern Plains. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a few Slight Risks for severe weather (level 2/5)--across the south-central Plains, eastern Nebraska into Iowa, and farther east in the Ohio Valley through Monday night. The Ohio Valley Slight Risk is primarily for high winds, while all severe hazards are possible farther west. Then, on Tuesday, the threat for flash flooding will shift southeastward into the Ozarks vicinity and Mid-South, with another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect. Rainfall rates should be heavy and a few inches of rain could pile up there, and this is considered a higher-end Slight Risk. Another Slight Risk of severe weather also coincides for much of the same region across the Ozarks vicinity and into the ArkLaTex, with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all possible. Additional more isolated instances of flash flooding are possible across a much broader area from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys west through the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys and into portions of the central/southern Plains. The threat for flash flooding is expected to continue into Wednesday with a Slight Risk outlined across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as the low pressure system moves east. An upper low just off the West Coast is supporting another round of afternoon thunderstorms across much of the Southwest Monday. Locally heavy downpours may lead to some isolated flash flooding, especially from the Colorado River Valley eastward through Arizona and into west-central New Mexico. As the upper low meanders, an associated weak Pacific frontal system is expected to approach the central/southern California coast Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms there as well. Significantly anomalous moisture will support the threat for heavy rainfall, with at least an isolated risk for flash flooding, especially for any burn scars. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms can be expected across the Florida Peninsula and up portions of the southeast Atlantic coast, as well as along the western Gulf Coast. A cold front will bring showers and storms to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity into Monday night and expand in coverage across the rest of the Northeast into Tuesday. Meanwhile, another cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the central Rockies the next couple of days. Some higher mountain elevations may see some snow mix in on Tuesday. Warmer than average conditions will persist into the first full day of Fall on Tuesday across the southern tier and through the East. Highs in the 90s (and perhaps reaching 100 degrees in parts of Texas and the Desert Southwest) will stretch through the Southeast with the Eastern Seaboard warming into the 80s Tuesday. Meanwhile the central Rockies and High Plains can expect much cooler temperatures (more Fall-like conditions) behind a cold front and with energy aloft, with highs only reaching the 50s and 60s, which is below normal by 10-20 degrees. Cooler air should filter into the southern Rockies and south-central Plains by Wednesday, but the Southeast should remain warm. In the West, a warming trend is likely on Tuesday, with mostly 70s in coastal areas and 80s to 90s inland. The Northwest into northern High Plains should warm even more by Wednesday, but California could cool somewhat given the approaching upper low and increasing rain chances. Tate/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php