Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 23 2025 - 12Z Thu Sep 25 2025 ...Widespread thunderstorms continue ahead of a frontal system stretching from the Great Lakes to the central/southern Plains with a flash flood and severe weather threat... ...Showers and thunderstorms expected across central California with isolated flash flooding possible... ...Cooler temperatures come to portions of the central/southern Rockies and Plains while the rest of the country will see above average temperatures through mid-week... An active and unsettled pattern over the central U.S. will not only continue but become more organized over the next couple of days leading to additional risks of both flash flooding and severe weather. Upper-level energy and surface low pressure/frontal systems will consolidate in the Plains and move slowly east, drawing in ample Gulf moisture to fuel widespread, heavy-rain producing thunderstorms. On Tuesday, storms are forecast from the Great Lakes southwest through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the central/southern Plains. The greatest concentration of storms is expected to focus along frontal waves from the Lower Ohio Valley southwest through the Mid-South, Ozarks, and ArkLaTex, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for the threat of scattered flash flooding. Additional isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected more broadly across the area. A similar region from the Ozarks and vicinity southwest through the Red River Valley will face a severe weather threat, with the Storm Prediction Center outlining a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Then, on Wednesday, the frontal system will continue eastward focusing storm chances from the Lower Great Lakes southwest through the Ohio, Tennessee, and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys to the western Gulf Coast/Texas. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect across portions of the Ohio and central Tennessee Valleys where storms are expected to focus along the eastward moving cold front and rain from the previous days may leave wetter antecedent conditions prone to some scattered instances of flash flooding. More isolated instances of flash flooding can once again be expected more broadly across the noted regions. Some isolated damaging wind gusts will also remain possible. Elsewhere in the East, a cold front from Canada consolidating with the eastward moving central U.S. system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Northeast the next couple of days with some moderate rainfall possible. Daily thunderstorms can also be expected over the Florida Peninsula. To the west, some locally heavier rainfall can be expected with post-frontal upslope flow across portions of the central Rockies and High Plains, with an isolated risk of flash flooding. Higher elevations of the Rockies will see some snow mix in, though any accumulations should be limited to the highest mountain peaks. The rain should come to an end by Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours are also expected along the tail end of the cold front across portions of far west Texas and southern New Mexico where isolated instances of flash flooding will also be possible on Wednesday. An upper-low that has been lingering along the coast of California will continue to lead to showers and thunderstorms across portions of central California. Abundant moisture will support heavy rainfall, with isolated flash flooding a risk here as well, especially for any burn scars. Much of the country will see above average temperatures through mid-week, with some of the greatest anomalies across the northern tier. Forecast highs from the Pacific Northwest east through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains will be in the 70s to around 80 Tuesday, and well into the 80s Wednesday. Similarly anomalous highs into the 80s and 90s across northern and central California Tuesday will drop into the 70s and 80s Wednesday as the upper-low approaches. The rest of the West will be around or above average, with highs in the 70s and 80s for the Great Basin and 90s to 100s for the Desert Southwest. To the east, conditions will generally be above to well above average across much of the Northeast and Midwest with highs in the 70s and 80s, and 90s into the Southeast west through Texas. Meanwhile, the upper-trough and cold front passage over portions of the central U.S. will bring cooler, well below average temperatures, with highs only into the 50s and 60s across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains on Tuesday. The cooler air will expand eastward towards the Middle Mississippi Valley and southward into much of the southern Plains/Texas on Wednesday, with highs falling mainly into the 70s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php