Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 24 2025 - 00Z Fri Sep 26 2025 ...Widespread thunderstorms continue ahead of a frontal system stretching from the Great Lakes to the central/southern Plains with a flash flood and severe weather threats... ...Showers and thunderstorms expected across central California with isolated flash flooding possible... ...Cooler temperatures expected in the south-Central U.S. while the northern tier heats up... A strong frontal system is moving east across the Central U.S. today, with widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the system. Precipitation chances will stretch from the Great Lakes to the central/southern Plains through tonight into Wednesday, then precipitation will shift towards the East Coast Thursday into Friday. This system is forecast to produce scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding in portions of the central/southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley through tonight. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being strong, but hail and damaging wind gusts will also be possible. The threat for severe weather will decrease on Wednesday, but isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms, with occasional damaging wind gusts, will still be possible. Heavy rain may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding on Wednesday for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances are forecast to persist through the next couple of days over South Texas, Florida, and Central California. The tail end of the aforementioned frontal system is expected to stall over South Texas Wednesday and Thursday, which will result in continued thunderstorm chances. Florida will experience daily diurnal thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours, while an upper low triggers thunderstorms in California. Showers and storms will also be possible through tonight along portions of the central Rockies and High Plains where post-frontal upslope flow will enhance precipitation. Locally heavy rainfall in these regions may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. Late this week, precipitation chances are forecast to increase across the Southwest, resulting in an increasing risk of flash flooding over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, especially for any burn scar areas. Much of the country will see above average temperatures through mid-week, with some of the greatest anomalies across the northern tier. High temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains will likely reach into the 80s on Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures will be trending downwards in California under the upper low and in the south-Central U.S. in the wake of the frontal system. In the East, temperatures will generally be above average on Wednesday, then slightly cooler air will arrive with the frontal system later this week. Dolan/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php