Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Sep 25 2025 - 12Z Sat Sep 27 2025 ...Risk of scattered downpours and a few strong to severe thunderstorms for much of the Eastern Seaboard Thursday... ...Southerly fetch of moisture around a slow-moving upper-level low to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms with a threat of flash flooding to parts of the Southwest the next few days... ...Critical fire weather conditions to develop across the northern Cascades into the Columbia Basin Thursday... Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal system approaching from the Ohio Valley will draw rich Gulf moisture northward and set the stage for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern U.S. Thursday into Thursday Night. The deepening moisture pooling along a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes and interior Northeast southwestward to southern Texas will support heavy rainfall rates and the potential for localized flash flooding, particularly in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. Enough instability and shear will also be present to support a few marginally strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, especially from parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. The primary concern from any severe storms that develop would be scattered damaging wind gusts, though the risk of an isolated tornado isn't completely ruled out. The cold front should clear most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by Friday, but will slow down and hang up across the Southeast. This will result in another localized flash flooding and strong thunderstorm threat to round out the work week. To the west, a plume of moisture streaming northward on the eastern flank of a slow-moving upper-level low will lead to several rounds of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest through the end of the week and into the weekend. Showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy rain rates with the potential to cause scattered instances of flash flooding, especially across portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico and in more vulnerable places such as slot canyons, burn scars, steep terrain, etc. The flash flood risk will increase further on Friday and possibly Saturday as soils become increasingly saturated from storms repeatedly developing and tracking over the same areas each day. Across the Pacific Northwest, strong downslope winds combined with very dry air and dry fuels will support critical fire weather conditions across portions of the North Cascades into the Columbia Basin Thursday. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph overlapping with relative humidities bottoming out in the single digits and teens will result in conditions that are favorable for the ignition and rapid spread of new and existing fires. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php