Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Sep 26 2025 - 00Z Sun Sep 28 2025 ...Numerous showers and storms for the Southeast states through Saturday... ...Southerly fetch of moisture around a slow-moving upper-level low to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms with a threat of flash flooding to parts of the Southwest the next few days... A rather stagnant weather pattern is beginning to emerge across the East Coast states going into the weekend. A cold front approaching the coast will be slowing down, and is expected to become nearly stationary across coastal portions of the Southeast U.S. by Saturday, while moving off the Northeast U.S. Coast in time for the weekend. The loitering frontal boundary in combination with shortwave energy moving through aloft and a humid maritime airmass in place will increase the coverage of rainfall from Virginia southward to Florida, where a Marginal Risk of flash flooding is valid on Friday. The heaviest rainfall is likely from the Sandhills of South Carolina to the Virginia border, where 1-2 inches is expected for many areas through Saturday evening. Some thunderstorm activity is possible for the coastal plain of the Carolinas where instability will be greatest. Showers currently over the Northeast are likely to continue into the overnight hours into Friday morning, followed by improving conditions by Friday night. Another region of active weather will be across the southwestern U.S., where a plume of moisture surging northward on the east side of a slow-moving upper low will lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the Sierra Nevada to the southern Rockies. This convection could result in heavy rainfall rates that may lead to some scattered instances of flash flooding, especially across portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where WPC currently has a Slight Risk for flash flooding through Saturday morning. Slot canyons and burn scar areas will be especially vulnerable to rapid onset flooding. The flooding threat then focuses more over central New Mexico going into Saturday, while isolated instances of heavy rainfall remain possible across the remainder of the Southwest as monsoonal moisture lingers in place. Across the Pacific Northwest, critical fire weather conditions on Thursday will improve going into Friday and the weekend as relative humidities increase and winds become lighter. Elsewhere across the Continental U.S., expect dry conditions across the Plains into the Ohio Valley and western Great Lakes, as well as the Northwest states. Hamrick Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php