Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Sep 26 2025 - 12Z Sun Sep 28 2025 ...Waves of low pressure moving along a nearly stationary frontal boundary will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to much of the Southeast Friday into Saturday... ...Southerly fetch of moisture around a slow-moving upper-level low to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms with a threat of flash flooding to parts of the Southwest the next few days... ...Unseasonable warmth builds across the northern tier of the U.S. through the weekend... Gulf moisture pooling along a frontal boundary that is forecast to slow down and become nearly stationary across the southern Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast will likely result in a couple days of unsettled weather with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The humid airmass in place will increase the potential for heavy rainfall rates, while several waves of low pressure riding along the stalled front will increase the coverage of showers and storms. With the threat of clusters of heavy rain repeatedly developing and tracking over the same areas, at least localized flash flooding becomes a concern, particularly in low-lying and poor drainage areas. The risk of excessive rainfall and potential flash flooding today will stretch from Virginia to Florida, but will be relatively highest across parts of southwest Virginia, western North Carolina, and western South Carolina before shifting eastward slightly Saturday into Sunday. A wave of lighter and more beneficial rain will gradually spread northward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England over the course of Saturday and Sunday before drying out again by the time Monday rolls around. Heading out west, an upper-level low will cutoff and spin over southern California and southwest Arizona the next few days. As the cutoff low sits and spins, it will continuously draw a fetch of enhanced moisture northward into the Southwest U.S., setting the stage for daily chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall rates are likely to occur with this activity, increasing the risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. More vulnerable areas such as burn scars and slot canyons within southern Arizona and southwest New Mexico will be most at risk for flooding concerns today, before shifting eastward into central New Mexico Saturday and Sunday. Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry weather is in store today and through the weekend largely thanks to upper level ridging. The ridge of high pressure and the resulting dry weather will lead to increasing unseasonable warmth, especially across the northern tier of the U.S. Temperatures the next few days will climb to between 10 and 20 degrees above normal, translating to highs well into the 70s and 80s. In fact, high temperatures across parts of the central U.S. and northern Plains may even make a run into the low 90s by Sunday. In stark contrast, for places in the Southeast and Southwest that are cloudier and stormier, highs will generally be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php