Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 408 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Sep 27 2025 - 12Z Mon Sep 29 2025 ...Waves of low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic today into Sunday... ...Showers and thunderstorms with a heavy rain and flash flood threat continue underneath a nearly stationary upper-level low over the Southwest the next couple of days... ...Watching Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 as it slowly approaches the Southeast coastline early next week... Gulf moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. Waves of low pressure will develop and ride along the nearly stationary front, bringing widespread rainfall to much of the region. Much of this rain will be beneficial, particularly with northern extent into the Mid-Atlantic given the recent dryness, but some may be heavy enough to cause flooding concerns. This will especially be the case for southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina where clusters of heavy showers and storms could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. A slight risk of excessive rainfall remains in place to highlight this threat. The risk for flash flooding eases by Sunday, with most shower and storm activity mostly confined to the immediate coastline and just inland of southeast Virginia and the Carolinas. A cutoff upper-level low spinning over the Southwest U.S. will continue to support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days. Surges of anomalous moisture will be drawn northward into and around the low, providing the fuel for heavy rainfall rates and flash flooding concerns. For today, a marginal risk covers much of the Great Basin and Four Corners states, but the primary focus for flash flooding will be across parts of southern California, southwest Arizona, and south-central New Mexico where a slight risk is in effect. By Sunday, the broader marginal risk shifts to the north and east to include more of Utah and Colorado as the upper-level low finally begins to open up into a wave and lift out of the region. Another slight risk is in place for south-central New Mexico to round out the weekend, highlighting the relatively higher risk of flash flooding. As has been the case the last several days, the most vulnerable places for flash flooding will be urban areas, burn scars, slot canyons, dry arroyos, etc. A few showers and storms may linger into Monday, but fortunately most of the Southwest will begin to dry out as drier air works into the region. Attention then turns to the recently designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it slowly tracks northward across the Bahamas and approaches the Southeast U.S. coastline early next week. Plenty of uncertainty remains with just about all aspects of the forecast, and it will likely take another day or two before details become more clear. However, anyone with interests along and just inland of the Southeast U.S. coastline will want to pay close attention to the latest information from the National Hurricane Center and the Weather Prediction Center as the storm may bring potentially hazardous weather conditions close enough to the coast to be concerning, particularly with the possibility of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. In the mean time, now is the time to review hurricane preparedness plans to ensure you are ready to take action in case the need arises. As always, for the latest advisories and official information, visit the National Hurricane Center's website at nhc.noaa.gov. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php