Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 319 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Sep 28 2025 - 00Z Tue Sep 30 2025 ...Waves of low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through Sunday... ...Showers and thunderstorms with a heavy rain and flash flood threat continue underneath a slow-moving upper-level low over the Southwest the next couple of days... ...Tropical Depression Nine forms south of the Bahamas...expected to become a Tropical Storm this evening and gradually lift up offshore of the Southeast coastline early next week... Gulf moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. Waves of low pressure will lift slowly northeastward along the front, bringing widespread rainfall to much of the region. Much of this rain will be beneficial, particularly with northern extent into the Mid-Atlantic given the recent dry weather, but some of the rain is expected to be heavy enough to cause concerns for flash flooding. This will especially be the case for eastern North Carolina through much of southeast Virginia and into the Delmarva where slow-moving clusters of showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates may lead to locally a few inches of rain. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted this region in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall going through early Sunday morning. A cutoff upper-level low spinning over the Southwest U.S. will continue to support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days. Surges of anomalous moisture will be drawn northward into and around the low, providing the fuel for heavy rainfall rates and thus concerns for areas of flash flooding. Some of the normally dry washes/arroyos and local burn scar areas will be at greatest risk for impacts. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is depicted through early Sunday across southeast California and much of western Arizona, along with areas farther east across central and southern New Mexico where there will be locally concentrated areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. This heavy rainfall threat will continue Sunday through early Monday, but will be focused a tad farther east as the upper low drifts off to the northeast. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is depicted once again across central and southern New Mexico where heavy showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Conditions though should improve across southeast California and Arizona as drier air will begin to arrive and allow for the heavy rainfall concerns to diminish. Attention then turns to the Tropical Depression Nine which is currently lifting slowly northwestward toward the Bahamas. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm this evening and lift gradually up offshore of the Southeast coastline early next week. This will bring concerns for additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding to the coastal plain of the Carolinas down though eastern Georgia. However, a high level of uncertainty remains with just about all aspects of the forecast over the next couple of days as the storm at least approaches the Southeast coast. Anyone with interests along and just inland of the Southeast U.S. coastline should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system and consult the latest information from the National Hurricane Center and the Weather Prediction Center concerning the forecast hazards. In the meantime, now is the time to review hurricane preparedness plans to ensure you are ready to take action in case the need arises. As always, for the latest advisories and official information, visit the National Hurricane Center's website at nhc.noaa.gov. Orrison/Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php