Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 28 2025 - 12Z Tue Sep 30 2025 ...Showers and thunderstorms along a stalled frontal boundary near the Southeast U.S. coastline expected to linger into early next week...watching Tropical Depression Nine as it moves northward through the Bahamas... ...Another round of widespread showers and storms with a heavy rain and flash flood threat for the Southwest today before drying out some on Monday... ...Well above normal temperatures continue from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast the next few days... Anomalous moisture pooling along a slow-moving and nearly stationary frontal boundary draped along the Southeast U.S. coastline will remain the focus for more showers and thunderstorms today. Showers and storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates and localized instances of flash flooding, particularly along and just inland of the Carolinas and Florida/Georgia coastlines. The concern then turns towards Tropical Depression Nine as it slowly moves northward through the Bahamas and likely strengthens into a tropical storm or hurricane the next couple of days. While a direct landfall is looking much less probable according to the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, surges of deep tropical moisture associated with this system are still likely to interact with the stalled frontal boundary along the Southeast U.S. coastline, supporting at least the potential for a heavy rain and flash flooding threat. The magnitude of this risk will largely come down to how closely this tropical system comes to the coast before it likely stalls and makes a sharp turn to the east and out to sea. While the details on the exact timing and evolution still remain unclear, residents or those with interests along the Southeast U.S. coast from Florida to the Carolinas should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and the Weather Prediction Center and ensure that they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place. Additional rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Southwest U.S. again today, particularly from the Great Basin to the southern Rockies. A plume of enhanced moisture streaming northward around an upper-level low provide the fuel for heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding, especially in more vulnerable places such as burn scars, slot canyons, dry arroyos, etc. The risk is relatively highest across south central New Mexico, where a slight risk of excessive rainfall remains in place. Fortunately, the upper-low responsible for the very stormy pattern the last several days will be on its way out, leading to a much drier forecast to start the new work week. After that, the focus for unsettled weather will shift to the Pacific Northwest as a frontal system moves inland and brings scattered to widespread showers and storms to much of the region through at least midweek. From the northern and central Plains eastward across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast, well above normal temperatures will be the rule for the next few days. Temperatures will run roughly 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year, translating to highs in the 70s and 80s for many. Even some pockets of highs in the low 90s will be possible for portions of the nation's midsection. For places that remain stormy and unsettled with more clouds and rain than sun, temperatures will run a few to several degrees below seasonal norms. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php