Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 29 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 01 2025 ...Moisture associated with Imelda will support showers and thunderstorms along the Southeast U.S. coast the next couple of days... ...A series of Pacific frontal systems will bring waves of showers and thunderstorms to portions of northern California and the Pacific Northwest through midweek... ...Unseasonably warm temperatures continue from the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes... Tropical Storm Imelda will track across and just to the north of the Bahamas today into tonight before making a sharp turn to the east, strengthening into a hurricane, and accelerating well out to sea Tuesday into Wednesday. Prior to Imelda's sharp eastward turn, some of it's tropical moisture will be drawn northward and pool along a stationary boundary draped along the Southeast U.S. coastline. Combined, the moisture and frontal boundary will act as a focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms along the coast and just inland over the next couple of days. Given that the forecast track keeps Imelda well offshore, the flash flooding threat has been significantly reduced. In fact, the greatest risk from Imelda will likely not be from heavy rainfall and flooding, but from swells, high surf, and dangerous rip currents along coastal areas of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. With all that being said, tropical showers and thunderstorms will still contain heavy rainfall rates, which could lead to widely scattered instances of flash flooding, particularly in more vulnerable low-lying and poor drainage areas. After a cutoff upper-level low brought several days of unsettled weather across much of the Southwest this past weekend and last week, the focus for showers and thunderstorms will now shift to portions of northern California and the Pacific Northwest as a series of Pacific frontal systems push inland. Waves of showers and storms will come and go through at least midweek, with some potential for this activity to contain heavy rainfall. This will especially be the case from northern California and Nevada to parts of eastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and extreme southwest Montana today, and across parts of the Intermountain West on Tuesday. Southwest flow associated with robust upper-level ridging will continue to support widespread unseasonably warm temperatures across the northern/central Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes regions the next few days. High temperatures are expected to routinely exceed 10 degrees above normal, with some places across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest exceeding 15 to 20 degrees above normal. These departures translate to daytime highs well into the 70s, 80s, and even low to mid 90s for some. Low temperatures will stay above seasonal norms as well, with most places only dropping into the 50s and 60s at night. Miller Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php