Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 328 AM EDT Fri Oct 03 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 03 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 05 2025 ...Record high temperatures likely across the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes... ...Heavy rains and flooding possible along the east coast of Florida... The mid to upper level flow will remain highly amplified across the Lower 48 over the next several days, consisting of a deep upper trough moving inland from the West Coast Friday into the Great Basin and Rockies by Saturday, a building upper ridge from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast, and a weak upper low forming across the north-central Gulf. This pattern will support a large spread in temperatures from west to east late this week into the weekend. Cooler than average temperatures are likely from the West Coast through the Great Basin toward the Rockies as a strong surface cold front pushes inland with the aforementioned deep upper trough. But east of the Rockies, the upper ridge will promote above average to well above average temperatures for most areas, except for the southern Mid-Atlantic into Florida. Record high afternoon temperatures and record high morning low temperatures are likely to stretch from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes over the next two days. Across these areas, high temperatures Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, ranging from 15 to 30 degrees above average. This late season heat wave will produce moderate to major HeatRisk across parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, western Wisconsin, and into northern Illinois. Relief from this heat will begin late this weekend as a strong front pushes eastward across the north-central U.S. The wettest weather over the next few days will be along the east coast of Florida into the coastal Southeast and along portions of the central Gulf Coast. An area of surface high pressure is forecast to remain centered across the Northeast over the next few days. The clockwise flow around this high will keep persistent easterly to east-northeasterly low level flow off the Atlantic and into Florida and vicinity. This pattern will support numerous showers across these areas, with the heaviest rains likely along the east coast of Florida into the weekend. Localized flooding issues are possible, especially in the urban areas along the east coast of Florida, and a Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in place in the Friday and Saturday Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Farther west, some rain could occur over the central Gulf Coast, but amounts will be dependent on how much sneaks onshore, with heavier amounts offshore. The strong cold front slowly moving through the Intermountain West and Rockies late this week will promote precipitation chances. Moderate to heavy rain could cause isolated flooding concerns for those areas Friday, along with isolated severe weather (high wind and hail threats). Expect rain and a Marginal Risk of severe weather to push east into the Northern/Central Plains by Saturday ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile in the higher elevations, snow is likely. Winter Storm Watches are in place across parts of the Northern Rockies/Absaroka Range/Bighorn Mountains for possibly several inches of snowfall over the weekend. Tate/Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php