Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 22 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 24 2025 ...Chilly and showery weather across the Great Lakes with lake-effect thunderstorm bands possible again near Lake Erie today... ...Heavy rain threat emerges across the south-central Plains Thursday night as showers and thunderstorms develop... ...Late October near record warmth along the lower Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas... Unsettled weather is expected to continue from the Great Lakes to the Northeast for the next couple of days as a low pressure system containing multiple vortices will be slow to exit. As cold air associated with an upper-level low moves across, the instability and antecedent moisture will support showers and scattered areas of rain, along with the possibility of lake-enhanced/lake-effect thunderstorms downwind of Lake Erie today. Rain will also be prevalent across New England today as a wave of low pressure develops along the trailing cold front and moves across the region. The low pressure wave will lift northward into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday night, allowing much of the rain over New England to taper off by then. However, more chilly and showery weather is expected to continue through Thursday across the Great Lakes before a slow drying trend sets in Thursday night when the system weakens and edges away into Canada. Meanwhile, colder and drier weather along with gusty winds will expand from the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic as a high pressure ridge builds in from the northern Plains. Across the south, high temperatures will once again approach daily record levels this afternoon along the lower Rio Grande Valley of southern Texas where temperatures will once again soar well into the 90s. Across the Northwest, dry weather will prevail before a series of cold fronts leads to increasing chance of rain along the coastline beginning on Wednesday. Heavier rainfall is forecast to approach the area Friday morning ahead of the arrival of the main Pacific front. Further south, scattered thunderstorms tied to a shortwave trough are expected across the Great Basin to the Four Corners on Thursday, which will be largely beneficial as this region remains under drought conditions. By Thursday night into Friday morning, the shortwave trough will begin heading toward the southern High Plains. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms developing over the south-central Plains ahead of a warm front and a developing surface low. The rain will then expand across the region with an increasing threat of heavy rainfall by Friday morning. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php