Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 12 2019 - 00Z Tue Oct 15 2019

Days 1-3...

...Major Early Season Blizzard on the Northern Plains Continues
into Saturday...

...Northern Plains to western Great Lakes...
The low pressure causing the early season blizzard over ND will
reach peak intensity tonight before slowly weakening in place
(centered over northern MN) Saturday then drifting northeast into
Ontario with further weakening Sunday.
Heavy snow bands are expected to linger over ND into Saturday as
the system becomes occluded...further increasing already historic
accumulations for eastern North Dakota in early October. Storm
total snow in excess of two feet is expected for areas. Snow rates
will decrease as the low fills and drier air works in from the
west.

Lake enhanced snow is expected in the arrowhead of MN Saturday as
southerly flow occurs under the deep cold core low with a risk of
over 6 inches for the higher elevations.  This tapers as low
pressure departs into Canada on Sun.

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent Days
1-3.
The probability of heavy snow on Day 3 is less than 10 percent.

Jackson