Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 24 2019 - 12Z Sun Oct 27 2019


Day 1...

...Southern Rockies and High Plains...
Ongoing winter storm across the central Rockies and High Plains
will continue to shift south on Thursday, with locally heavy snows
expected along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains from southern
Colorado into northern New Mexico.  As the associated upper level
trough begins to pivot east from the southern Rockies into the
High Plains, models continue to signal the potential for a narrow
band of moderate to potentially heavy snow developing east over
the Texas Panhandle.  Favorable upper jet forcing combined with
low to mid level frontogenesis is expected to enhance
precipitation rates along a narrow axis during the afternoon and
evening hours on Thursday, raising the potential for an anomalous
early-season snowfall for portions of the region.

Days 2-3...

...Northern Rockies...
Upper level ridging will give way to a well-defined shortwave and
associated shot of much colder air dropping south through the
northern Rockies Saturday and Sunday.  Post-frontal upslope flow
in addition to favorable upper forcing is expected to support
locally heavy accumulations from the southwestern Montana to the
southeastern Wyoming ranges.


For Days 1-3, the probability of significant icing is less than 10
percent.

Pereira