Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 14 2019 - 00Z Sun Nov 17 2019


...Great Lakes...

Day 1...
Low-level winds across Lake Michigan and vicinity will start as
S/SW ahead of a cold front approaching from the Upper MS Valley.
Lake enhanced snows have occurred this afternoon across and
downstream from Lake Michigan.  Lake water temperatures are still
very warm, so despite WAA, the delta T is sufficient for modest
instability across the Lakes which will support snow band
development.  However, the cold front crosses the lake and then
Michigan, followed by dry air advection aloft.  This in turn
should cut down on snow coverage and intensity overnight, bringing
the potential for significant snow accumulations to a close.

A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives with the next front
tomorrow night, but this is followed by another shot of dry air
aloft, limiting redevelopment of lake effect snow.

For Days 1-3, the probability of significant icing (0.25-inch) is
less than 10 percent.

Petersen