Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 AM EST Fri Feb 04 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 04 2022 - 12Z Mon Feb 07 2022 ...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies... Day 1... A shortwave trough embedded within confluent flow and ahead of a building ridge across the Pacific will shift across the BC shore today bringing moisture and ascent into WA state this afternoon the Northern Rockies tonight. Snow levels will be around 3000 ft and brief heavy snow is expected. Day 1 WPC probabilities are high for over 6" across the northern WA Cascades and moderately high over the Bitterroots and around Glacier NP. Moderate snowfall is likely at several of the mountain passes including Stevens, Snoqualmie, and Marias. ...Mid-South through the Northeast... Days 1/2... A persistent band of frontogenesis will persist across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic today aiding the already strong lift. Snowfall rates around 1"/hr will shift east across northern New England this morning. Day 1 snow probabilities are moderate for over 6 additional inches across eastern Maine. Farther south, strong-but-slow cold air advection behind the cold front will cause rain to change to freezing rain and sleet across southern New England just inland over the northern Mid-Atlantic today. Day 1 ice probabilities are 10 to 30 percent for a quarter inch over eastern Mass (west of Cape Cod) and over RI where dewpoints are currently 50F - an indication of how much cold air is knocking on the door of southeast New England. ...Far northern North Dakota/Minnesota and Northern Great Lakes... Days 1/2... A fast moving low pressure dropping out of Alberta will shift across central ND and northern MN late tonight through Saturday. Sufficient moisture and local enhancement from Lake Superior into the North Shore decent banding to develop on the north side of the low. The bands will be fairly oriented with the direction of the low, so prolonged residence time should allow locally maximized snow over far northern ND to the Arrowhead. Day 1.5/2 snow probabilities are moderate for over 4" from the Northwest Angle through the Arrowhead. Furthermore, southerly flow ahead of the system will allow LES over Lake Michigan and affect the southern shore of the eastern U.P. later Saturday. There are moderate probabilities for over 6" near Manistique, MI. Jackson ~~~ Key Messages for Feb 1-4 Winter Storm ~~ -- A stripe of locally heavy freezing rain will shift southeast from the Interior Northeast to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. -- Moderate to locally heavy snow will shift east across northern New England this morning. -- An expansive area of cold air behind this storm will maintain cold/subfreezing temperatures over much of the interior U.S. into the weekend.