Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EST Mon Feb 07 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 07 2022 - 12Z Thu Feb 10 2022

...Northeast and New England...
Days 1-2...

A mid-level trough currently extending from Lake Superior through
the Midwest will shift east across the Ohio Valley through this
evening and amplifying overnight as a reinforcing wave promotes
strengthening over the Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday before closing
in to a deep low over Atlantic Canada Tuesday night. A surface
wave has developed off the GA coast and will steadily develop as
it shifts north through tonight, reaching near the 70W/40N
Benchmark early Tuesday.  Warm air advection ahead of this wave is
allowing light precip to develop over the Carolinas and the
Mid-Atlantic early this morning. A light wintry mix can be
expected in these areas into the morning. As the low develops
tonight, a TROWAL and increasing flow will allow moderate precip
rates to develop along (or just off the Jersey Shore), eastern
Long Island, and coastal New England. Increasingly marginal
thermal profiles looks to limit appreciable snow to interior
central and northern New England, mainly in NH and Maine. A stripe
of 6-10" is possible tonight into Tuesday from the Presidential
Range of the White Mtns of NH up through interior central Maine
where Day 1.5 snow probabilities for over 6" are moderate. The low
slows a bit over Nova Scotia late Tuesday, prolonging wrap around
snow over northern Maine. This will be a heavy/wet snow with local
enhancements in bands NW/W of the sfc low center.


...U.P. of Michigan...
Day 3

The next wave crosses Ontario Tuesday night with post cold frontal
NWly flow bringing a threat for LES to the western U.P. Wednesday.
Day 3 snow probabilities for over 4" are 30 to 40% near the
Porcupine Mtns.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Jackson