Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EST Tue Feb 08 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 09 2022 - 00Z Sat Feb 12 2022

...Northern Maine...
Day 1...
As low pressure continues to track north through Atlantic Canada,
some additional light snow accumulations are expected to continue
through the evening across northern Maine.  WPC probabilities
indicate some modest potential for additional accumulations of 4
inches or more, primarily centered across Aroostook County.

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...
Shortwave ridging centered over the Great Lakes today is expected
to give way to a period of deep cyclonic flow, highlighted by a
pair of well-defined shortwaves moving through the base of the
broader scale trough.  The initial system, currently centered over
the Upper Midwest, is expected to move into the Upper Great Lakes
tonight, before lifting back to the northeast into eastern Canada
Wednesday night into Thursday.  Light warm advection snows ahead
of the system, followed by lake effect activity in the wake of the
trailing cold front, are expected to move from west to east across
the Great Lakes region tonight through Thursday.  Overall,
accumulations are expected to be light, however some of the
snowbelt regions, particularly the Porcupine Mountains and
Keweenaw Peninsula in the U.P. of Michigan and the Tug Hill Region
in Upstate New York, may see higher totals.

As the next system approaches, a brief period of drier weather is
expected across the Upper Lakes late Thursday before warm
advection precipitation returns by the evening and continues
through the overnight.  Deeper moisture and stronger forcing will
likely support more widespread snowfall coverage and a greater
potential for accumulations of 4 inches or more, especially across
the U.P. of Michigan.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Days 1-3...
Northwesterly flow with embedded energy aloft is expected to
support periods of generally light precipitation beginning this
evening and continuing trough Wednesday into early Thursday. 
Overall, accumulations are expected to be light, however some of
the favored upslope areas in the Yellowstone region, as well as
the Bighorns and Black Hills, could see some very locallized
heavier totals.  Dry conditions are expected across much of the
region late Thursday into early Friday before light precipitation
returns later in the day.

For Days 1-3, the probability of significant icing is less than 10
percent.

Pereira