Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 23 2022 - 12Z Sat Mar 26 2022

...Upper Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

A sprawling low drifts northeast from northern IL over lower MI
through tonight. Height falls ahead of the approaching upper low
counter acts the low level warm air advection to allow a
changeover from rain/freezing rain to snow this morning across
northern WI/the U.P. of MI where some banding with snowfall rates
up to 1"/hr can be expected. Day 1 snow probabilities are low to
moderate for 4" over far northern WI and the higher elevations of
the U.P. with most snow ending by evening as precip rates decrease
north of the occluded low. Some additional light freezing rain is
likely in pockets this evening with low probabilities for a tenth
inch over northern MI.

A clipper shifts southeast from ND to the Midwest Friday. Lake
enhancement off Superior allows for some low to moderate Day 3
snow probabilities for over 4" over the western U.P. of MI.


...Northeast...
Days 1-3...

Warm advection precipitation ahead of the sprawling low over the
Midwest will cross the Northeast this evening through Thursday
morning. Sufficiently cold air is retained on the terrain to allow
freezing rain of the Catskills and Adirondacks of NY, Greens of
VT, MA Berkshires, and the Whites of NH/Maine where Days 1 and 2
WPC ice probabilities for over 0.1" are moderately high.

A reinforcing trough rounding the upper low will allow coastal low
development over the northern Mid-Atlantic late Thursday with
rapid development as the low quickly lifts past Maine early
Friday. A transition from plain rain near the coast to freezing
rain and sleet over interior Maine and snow up in Aroostook occurs
Thursday night. Day 2 snow probabilities over 4" are moderately
high over far northern Maine with low probabilities for over 0.1"
ice extending through north-central Maine.


Jackson