Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Mon May 02 2022

Valid 12Z Mon May 02 2022 - 12Z Thu May 05 2022

...Nebraska...
Day 1...

Emerging open mid-level center out of Colorado will continue to
move northeastward this morning, with a closed 700mb low moving
along the KS/NE border. As the surface low exits southeastern CO
and lifts through KS today, colder air is forecast to move into
western and central Nebraska. Temperatures will be quite marginal
and perhaps not even down to 32-33F, but CAM guidance continues to
suggest snowfall could be a dominant p-type where strong rates
prevail. 1-2 inches may accumulate in some areas, but WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches remain below 10 percent.


...Pacific Northwest to the Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Potent closed low (500mb heights around -1.5 sigma) will move into
Oregon today on the nose of a 100kt jet. Snow levels on the
Cascades near 5000ft will drop below 4000ft behind the front
bringing some accumulating snow to some higher passes. Significant
snow in excess of 8 inches is likely for higher elevations above
5000ft, including the Blue Mountains. 700mb low will cross through
central/southern Idaho where additional significant snowfall is
likely (in excess of 8 inches for areas above about 7000ft). By
Day 2, closed low will move through Wyoming (700mb) and Colorado
(500mb), spreading modest snow across northeastern NV/northern UT,
western WY including the Absarokas and Wind River Range, and into
south central Montana. By Day 3, moisture in the cold sector will
wane and light snow is forecast for the northern/central CO Ranges
of a few inches with high snow levels above 7000ft.


For days 1-3, the probability of significant icing is less than 10
percent.

Fracasso