Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 11 2022 - 00Z Mon Nov 14 2022

...Northern High Plains into Upper Mississippi River Valley...
Day 1...
Ongoing moderate to heavy snow associated with a closed upper low
will continue to translate east across North Dakota and
northwestern Minnesota.  Strong upper divergence attributed to
left-exit region upper jet forcing along with pockets of elevated
instability will continue to contribute to areas of moderate to
heavy snow.  While showing some decrease in intensity, the 12Z
HREF indicates mesoscale banding supporting rates of an inch/hr or
more across far northeastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota this evening.  WPC PWPF indicates that additional
accumulations of 4 inches or more are likely after 00Z before snow
diminishes later in the evening.  In addition to heavy snow,
strong winds will contribute to reduced visibility and blizzard
conditions.

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...
As the low associated with the ongoing winter storm weakens and
lifts out to the northeast its trailing cold front will sweep
across the Great Lakes.  Meanwhile shortwave energy over Canada
will dive south, re-amplifying an upper trough over the Great
Lakes this weekend.  This will support the return of lake effect
snow showers over the western U.P. into northern Wisconsin by late
tomorrow, with rain changing to snow farther east across the
eastern U.P. and northern Lower Michigan Friday night into
Saturday.  While snow showers continue to impact parts of
Michigan, showers with rain changing to snow will begin to fall in
the lee of the eastern Great Lakes as well, with accumulating
snows likely from northeastern Ohio to Upstate New York late
Saturday into Sunday.  While widespread heavy totals are not
expected, there is the potential for locally heavy amounts,
especially across the western to central U.P. of Michigan.   

Key Messages for the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River
Valley:

-- The ongoing winter storm will continue to produce heavy snow
and an area of sleet and freezing rain over portions of North
Dakota and northern Minnesota through early Friday.

-- Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible this evening from
northeastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Total
snowfall will exceed 12" in some areas.

-- Blizzard conditions across portions of North Dakota and
northwestern Minnesota will continue overnight due to strong winds
and reduced visibility from blowing snow. Travel may be dangerous
in some areas and scattered power outages are possible.

-- Additional freezing rain and sleet to the south of the heaviest
snow may produce areas of icing. This may result in areas of
hazardous travel and some disruptions to infrastructure.

-- Strong northeasterly winds over western Lake Superior may lead
to hazardous waves

Pereira