Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 11 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 14 2022

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

As the storm system responsible for the myriad of winter weather
impacts across the northern Plains and northern Minnesota tracks
into southeast Canada on Friday, its associated cold front will
channel anomalously cold temperatures across the Great Lakes. In
addition, a surface trough will act a source of lift over the
Upper Great Lakes. As the cold air spills south and east across
Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan, delta-Ts will be on the
order of 15-20 degrees, producing a sufficiently unstable
atmosphere at low levels to support intense lake effect snow bands
starting late Day 1 across the U.P. of Michigan, then commencing
in northwest Michigan by the morning of Day 2. Latest WPC
probabilities for >6" of snowfall are as high as 40-60% in parts
of the U.P. and in northwest Michigan on Day 2. By Day 3, lake
effect bands pick up more downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
WPC probabilities do show up to ~5-10% probabilities of >4" of
snowfall in the Tug Hill Plateau of northern New York. For >2" of
snowfall, probabilities are highest in northwest PA and just south
of Buffalo, NY with values topping out as high as 50-60%. Given
the nature of lake effect snow bands, it is entirely possible
localized maxima could occur with some values approaching a foot.
Farther south, a few of the tallest peaks of the central and
northern Appalachians could see up to a couple inches of snow by
the end of Day 3, but totals otherwise will be light.

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Mullinax