Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 20 2022 - 00Z Wed Nov 23 2022

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...

Cold front will move through the central and eastern Great Lakes
tonight/early Sunday, reigniting the lake effect machine.
Northwesterly flow will promote multi-band streamers which will
slowly veer to westerly tomorrow night over Michigan. Off Lakes
Erie/Ontario, quasi-single band will shift to a wider band as the
flow veers from SW to W to WNW, allowing a wider expanse of snow
to the southeast of Lake Erie but still a rather focused area east
of Lake Ontario where more than 18" is still possible. Two-day WPC
probabilities of at least 8" of snow are moderate to high (>40%)
over far northeastern U.P. of Michigan, from northeastern OH to
southwestern NY, and south of due east off Lake Ontario. Incoming
ridging by late Sunday (western Lakes) and early Monday (eastern
Lakes) will end any lake effect but an incoming shortwave will
keep the chance of light snow around.

...Washington...
Day 3...
Incoming shortwave and surface front will start to bring in some
moisture to the Pacific Northwest, with a few inches of snow to
higher elevations in the Cascades generally above 5000-6000ft by
late Tuesday.


The probability of significant icing greater than 0.25" is less
than 10 percent.

Fracasso