Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 16 2019 - 00Z Tue Mar 19 2019


In the lee of the Great Lakes, post-frontal cold advection and
persistent moisture combine with enhanced low level convergence in
lee shore areas off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario to produce snow
showers tonight and the Tug Hill into the Adirondacks Sat. This
area has the greatest probability of received 4 or more inches of
snow.
Drier air aloft moving across the upper lakes leads to reduced
snow shower activity late tonight and Sat, followed by a similar
reduction off Lake Erie later Sat.
Sat night, as the upper low moves away and drier air crosses New
York into New England, snow shower activity drops there as well.

The probability of heavy snow of 4 inches of greater is less than
10 percent day 3.

The probability of with significant ice accumulations is less than
10 percent days 1-3.  


Petersen