Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 16 2019 - 12Z Tue Mar 19 2019


A quiet period continues, with models showing little threat for
widespread heavy snow or significant ice accumulations through the
weekend and into the early part of next week. 

A broad upper trough will remain in place from the Midwest into
the eastern U.S.  Shortwave energy dropping southeast from central
Canada into the base of the trough will support a weak surface
wave moving east from the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
valleys into the Ohio valley Saturday night into Sunday.  NAM, GFS
and several hi-res members are in good agreement showing a stripe
of light accumulations from eastern Iowa to northern Indiana
Saturday night-Sunday morning, along a band of low level
frontogenesis north of the surface wave.  Limited moisture and the
progressive nature of the system should keep accumulations light,
with WPC probabilities for accumulations of 4-inches or more at
less than 10 percent.  These light snows are expected to shift
farther east across Ohio and into the central Appalachians on
Sunday. 

Elsewhere, snow showers associated with a shortwave sliding
southeast along the northern to central High Plains is largely
responsible for some scattered low end probabilities for
accumulations of 4-inches or more across the northern to central
Rockies Monday into Tuesday.

Pereira