Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 17 2019 - 00Z Sat Apr 20 2019


...Western U.S...

An upper trough moving toward the Intermountain West this
afternoon will continue to amplify as it moves east, carving out
some anomalously low heights over the Southwest by Wednesday
morning and toward the Texas panhandle through the remainder of
the day.  As a result expect accumulating snows across the higher
elevations of northern New Mexico and mountains of Colorado,
especially the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. With
the models showing an upper low closing off as the trough moves
across New Mexico on Wednesday, strong upper forcing to the north
along with upslope flow may generate some locally higher amounts.
With instability aloft, deformation and strong northeast flow
developing northwest of the surface low, expect enhance upslope
snowfall rates and thus snowfall amounts across the Sangre de
Cristo de Cristo Range. This is where WPC probabilities show the
best potential (medium to high risk) for amounts of a foot or more
during the Day 1 (ending 00Z Thursday) into Day 2 period (ending
00Z Friday). With this being said, anticipate snow levels to fall
from around 9000ft to 8000ft through Thursday.

Pereira/Pagano