Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2019 - 12Z Tue Oct 15 2019

Days 1-3...

...Major Early Season Blizzard on the Northern Plains Continues
early today...

...Northern Plains to western Great Lakes...
The low pressure causing the early season blizzard over ND will
drift east over northern MN and slowly weaken.  The low center
reforms near Lake Superior and moves slowly northeast into Ontario
with further weakening Sunday. Snow rates will decrease as the low
fills and drier air advects in from the west.

Heavy snow bands are expected to linger over northern ND into
today as the system becomes occluded...further increasing already
historic accumulations for eastern North Dakota for both early
October and also among the all time highest snow amounts for
single multi-day events. Storm total snow near 3 feet has been
reported in a few spots in eastern ND.

Lake enhanced snow is expected in the arrowhead of MN through
tonight as the core of cold air aloft approaches with a risk of
over 6 inches inland from the lake over higher elevations.  This
tapers as low pressure departs into Canada on Sun.

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent Days
1-3.
The probability of heavy snow on Days 2 and 3 is less than 10
percent.

Petersen