Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2019 - 12Z Tue Nov 19 2019


...Cascades and Northern Rockies...

A progressive northern stream trough pushing east from the Pacific
Northwest this morning will cross the northern Rockies this
morning with a deep plume of Pacific moisture pushing into the
region into Sunday. Snow levels are very high today, around
10,000ft, but will lower Sunday to around 5000ft through Monday as
the next northern stream low approaches from the west. Any heavy
snow will be limited to higher elevations.


...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...
Days 1 and 2...

Warm air advection ahead of a cold front and northern stream
trough will provide moisture and lift for a light wintry mix
across portions of eastern MN/IA, WI/MI, and northern IL/IN
Sunday. Areas farther north look to have more snow, with areas
farther south, mainly along the IA/IL/WI border look to get the
light freezing rain.


...Northeast...
Day 3...

A southern stream wave shifts east off the GA coast today and
turns north and tracks off the Eastern Seaboard Sunday through
Monday night as a northern stream trough approaches and draws the
southern stream low in. 00Z guidance has trended the track back
east a bit off the Mid-Atlantic and the still having New England
as the most affected US region by what may be a phased low center
with a possible landfall. Subfreezing temperatures in interior
valleys with warm air advection occurring aloft supports freezing
rain and some sleet northern New Jersey across central Maine and
north Canada. At this time the most impactful weather looks to be
freezing rain for northern portions of New England Monday night.
WPC ice probabilities are low to moderate for a quarter inch on
Day 3 over the Green Mtns of VT and northeast along the White Mtns
of Maine to the Central Highlands.

Jackson